Modelling the Effects of Port Disruptions: Assessment of Disaster Impacts Using a Cost-Based Container Flow Assignment in Liner Shipping Networks

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In recent years, the increasing levels of interdependence between ports and logistic networks have underlined the importance of an integrated approach toward the formulation of resilience strategies to address disruptive events along the supply chain. Nonetheless, the variety of actors and processes within modern supply chains, and the complexity of associated relationships have previously led to the development of simulation-based models, whose application has been largely compromised by their dependency on extensive and complex sets of data. This paper lays the basis for the application of optimization techniques, less dependent on complex data sets, in order to assess the impacts of disruptive events on the container liner shipping network. It provides a categorization of port failure factors, differentiating between systemic and external disruptions, and investigating their impact on port components; it proposes the application of a container assignment model that minimizes the expected container routing costs and presents a case-study application to a set of South-East Asian ports along the Asia to Europe route, developing a range of scenarios related to the consequences of seismic and conflict hazards.

Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting